You may have heard that the U.S. cattle herd is the smallest it has been since 1951: 86.2 million head as of January 1, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
The beef cow herd is down nearly 13% from its 2019 peak, and the 2025 calf crop was smaller than at any point since 1941.
At the same time, a new article from the Wall Street Journal points out that packers are closing plants because there aren’t enough cattle to run them. Tyson alone has shut three beef facilities this year and put a fourth up for sale.
Fewer cattle means higher prices, and most forecasts say that should hold true for a while. That sounds like good news for ranchers. But the truth is, it’s only good news if you know your costs.
Tyson alone has shut three beef facilities this year and put a fourth up for sale.
The Wall Street Journal reports on current market conditions for the cattle industry, November 11 2026
Price is one line; profit is the whole picture.
A record calf price also means a record replacement cost.
If you keep a heifer, you pass up a big check today for a calf you might sell more than two years from now for a price no one can predict.
Buy cows to expand, and you are buying the most expensive cows you have ever purchased.
That is why the herd isn’t rebuilding yet. Replacement heifers were up just 1% in January, to 4.71 million. During the last rebuild, from 2015 to 2018, the average was 6.2 million.
Ranchers are doing the math, and the math is hard.
Fewer plants also means fewer buyers bidding in some regions. But you can’t compare to national numbers. You have to look at your prices.
Run the Replacement Cost report and compare what it costs your ranch to produce a 2-month bred replacement. Compare that cost with current market values.
Run it both ways
Nobody knows how long prices stay high, but smart ranch management means planning for all eventualities.
Test ranch management decisions before you make them:
- Keep 20 more heifers or sell them. What does each do to cash flow and profit over five years?
- Prices hold, or fall 10 or 20%. Does expansion still pencil out on your operation?
- What is your break-even number on a bred replacement?
- If you retain instead of sell, which month does cash get tight?
Ranch Vision models your operation five years out, then lets you change one assumption and see what moves. High prices aren’t a plan, they're speculation. Test it out first in Ranch Vision so you move forward with confidence.
Plan to Profit. Try Ranch Vision free for 14 days, no credit card required.